Seaweed saviour, COP26, Rural reposte
The Knight Frank Rural Property and Business Update – Our weekly dose of news, views and insight from the world of farming, food and landownership
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Before COP26 kicked off I predicted that agriculture would receive more than its fair share of criticism, despite not having a specific slot on the agenda. Comments such as: “animal meat is obsolete, it doesn’t make any sense. It’s from the last century,” uttered by the founder of a plant-based meat company at a side-event in Glasgow can be passed off as predictable marketing spin, but many critics seem unwilling to engage constructively or acknowledge that much of the UK’s food chain, including the NFU, has already committed to net zero targets. The fact that forestry body Confor has felt compelled to highlight the difference between deforestation in the tropics and sustainably managed temperate forestry highlights the lack of understanding.
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Andrew Shirley, Head of Rural Research
In this week’s update:
• Commodity markets – Prices stay firm as stocks revised
• Rural spending – CLA blasts government
• COP26 1 – Forestry sector clarifies deforestation confusion
• COP26 2 – Seaweed to curb methane burping cows
• Agricultural tenancies – CAAV report highlights cautious approach
• The Rural Report – Sign up to watch our ground-breaking video
• Overseas news – Climate change crop impact brought forward
Commodity markets – Prices stay firm as stocks revised
The November USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimate (WASDE) report published last week helped sustain wheat and oilseed rape markets. Global wheat stocks were pegged down from last month’s estimate of just over 277 million tonnes to 275.8 million tonnes. US Soybean yields were also marked back giving a push to OSR markets with Paris prices hitting new contract highs of over €700/t.
Rural spending – CLA blasts government
Following the revised funding plans unveiled in the recent budget, the CLA has revealed that rural businesses are set to lose out on hundreds of millions of pounds.
According to its analysis, spending plans under the UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) will lead to a shortfall of £315 million for rural businesses over a seven-year period. “The UKSPF make a mockery of the government’s promise to level up,” said former CLA President Mark Bridgeman, whose two-year term has just ended. He has been succeeded by Cotswold estate owner Mark Tufnell.
COP26 1 – Forestry sector clarifies deforestation confusion
As discussed last week a headline achievement at COP26 was a deal to cut deforestation. However, confusion in some quarters as to the difference between deforestation and sustainable commercial forestry practices has led to industry body Confor (of which Knight Frank is a member) to issue a statement clarifying the position. A spokesperson said: “…oversimplification of the issue in some media outlets has led many to think that felling trees is equivalent to deforestation - this is a very counterproductive conclusion.”
COP26 2 – Seaweed to curb methane burping cows
One of the other big announcements to come out of the COP26 talks that wrapped up last week was an agreement signed by 100 countries to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. This puts livestock farmers in the firing line as burping ruminants like cattle are a significant producer of the greenhouse gas. However, dietary supplements could drastically reduce the potency of their belches. Supermarket Morrisons is funding a new trial to build on previous research that suggests adding seaweed to the diets of cows could cut emissions by up to 80%.
Agricultural tenancies – CAAV report highlights cautious approach
The latest edition of the CAAV’s annual Agricultural Land Occupation Survey, which has just arrived on my desk suggests landlords and tenants are adopting a cautious approach when agreeing new tenancies. In 2020, the report says the average term was 4.83 years. “These remain low perhaps reflecting caution and uncertainty ahead of Brexit and post-Brexit policies,” said report author Jeremy Moody.
For advice on tenancy negotiations please contact our Rural Asset Management team.
This year’s edition of The Rural Report, our unique publication for rural landowners and their advisors, launched last month with a video highlighting some of its key content around the topic of ESG. If you missed it, you can sign up to watch on demand at your leisure. It was a lot of fun making it and includes a thought provoking interview on diversity, with Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones AKA The Black Farmer. I think you’ll find it both entertaining and informative.
Sign up to watch The Rural Report launch video
Overseas news – Climate change crop impact brought forward
New research published in the journal Nature Food, based on the latest climate and crop modelling, suggests that the impact of climate change on certain crops will be felt earlier than previously predicted. “Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585) - explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.”
Photo “Don’t forget to take your seaweed supplements….”
by David Edkins on Unsplash