Your Monday Update 10th August
Stamp duty, stamped out?
3 minutes to read
All eyes on the jobs market
Attention in many countries is being focussed on the jobs market, as governments prepare to wind down emergency support schemes. In the UK one in three employers plans to cut staff this quarter, with IT, manufacturing and construction most affected, according to a new survey of 2,000 employers. Some job losses are inevitable considering the size of the stimulus being withdrawn.
We talked on Friday about the Bank of England's new projections for unemployment to peak at 7.5% this year, down slightly from the 10% it was projecting in May. The UK’s outlook was buoyed by news on economic output which rose again in July, though at a slower pace.
Stamp out stamp duty?
In a new UK Residential Market Outlook, Tom Bill checks in on how the market is digesting the stamp duty holiday, which runs until next March and which can save buyers up to £15,000. The number of offers accepted in UK markets between 8 July - when the holiday was announced - and 3 August, was 146% above the five-year average for properties valued at less than £1.5 million, the section of the market where the impact of the holiday would be felt most. Above that figure, the increase was 71%.
With the holiday clearly working, Tom rightly questions whether this should become a permanent arrangement.
China leads the recovery
A range of China's key economic indicators set to be published this week are likely to show the recovery accelerating, adding to a growing body of evidence that the Chinese economy will be the first to pull out of the crisis. Growth in industrial production is forecast to have picked up and retail sales may have stopped shrinking in July.
Data published this morning showed China’s factory deflation eased last month, as industrial output steadily returns to levels seen before the pandemic.
Global house prices amid new outbreaks
Kate Everett-Allen's latest Global Residential Outlook notes that seven of the 20 cities we track in Asia Pacific are seeing an increase in sales activity, whilst eight are reporting activity levels remaining steady. Continued outbreaks of the disease are impacting sales volumes in some global markets, but prices remain largely resilient.
Meanwhile, in a global podcast special, Anna Ward speaks to Jonathan Miller, President and CEO of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraisal firm based in New York. He discusses why US suburban and second home markets are having a moment. The episode also looks at what’s driving Hong Kong buyers to acquire homes overseas and the biggest questions affecting UK residential property markets. Listen on Apple, Spotify or Acast.
The finance of forestry
Andrew Shirley's latest rural update examines the value of forestry as a financial and environmental investment and delves into two recent highly complex, but important legal rulings relating to the ownership of agricultural land and tenancies in Britain.
Andrew also joins Anna Ward in the podcast studio to discuss: what is driving landowners to plant more trees, how carbon credits play into that, whether the UK could become more self-sufficient in producing more timber, timber office construction, and what Scotland is doing differently. Listen on Apple, Spotify or Acast.
In other news...
What will later living schemes look like in a post-Covid world; buyers and renters seek holiday lets amid the decline in global travel; Australia borders to stay shut; ESG funds attract record inflows during the Covid-19 crisis.