The future of food and farming

Within a few years, the world will likely have passed 1.5°C and be heading for 2°C. Climate change is real, and the UK is getting wetter and warmer. Weather patterns are becoming more volatile, and farmers have been hit by heat, drought and floods in recent years.

The second Trump administration is rapidly making waves, and through transactional, disruptive, “America First” approaches, may usher in a new era where rules are less important than what powerful countries can get away with.

Closer to home, the rise of populist and protectionist concerns in the EU is a reality.

Over the coming decades, we are likely to see a more fragmented and volatile world. One where agricultural production at home is impacted by climate change and price volatility, and where trade becomes more volatile and unreliable.

In addition to climate and geopolitics, diet-related ill-health is demanding more attention across the world. Poor diets account for 10% of all deaths in the UK and cost the economy more than £268 billion, greater than the entire annual budget for the NHS. 

So, what does this mean for farmers?

The least plausible future for the UK food system is “business as usual”. Food system transformation is inevitable in the long term – to build resilience, adapt to changing consumption and, imperatively, to be more sustainable.

In a world of increasing volatility driven by markets and weather, food and farming resilience will become much more important.

One route to this is through increasing diversity and working better with nature through regenerative and agroecological approaches, including diverse rotations and mixed-farming enterprises.

Achieving food security is less and less likely to occur through intensively increasing agricultural production.

Change is coming because the world is changing. To help shepherd the adaptation needed, we need to find ways to reach consensus and to move away from the polarisation that is increasingly rife.

If we do not willingly change, the pressures on the system will become such that it will break and be forced to change.

You can read Tim’s full piece in the latest edition of The Rural Report:

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