The Rural Update: The case for horticulture

Viewpoint

When it comes to food self-sufficiency, the UK’s biggest issue is fresh produce. In relative terms, we import far more fruit and veg than we do meat, grains and dairy. Not only is this a food security weak spot, but it could be costing our farmers billions in potential revenue each year. As a new briefing note (discussed below) from the Green Alliance states, increasing consumption in the UK to match recommended health guidelines could boost farm incomes by 3%. Without subsidies, many farm businesses will struggle to make a profit growing conventional crops. A government-backed horticultural revolution requiring a relatively small area of land, under 115,000 ha, according to the Green Alliance, could be part of the solution.

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Commodity markets

Beef surge stalls

Beef prices fell for the first time in about 12 months last week. However, the drop was a negligible 0.1%. Beef has been on a remarkable run, surging in value by almost 45% over the past year. UK beef production was down by 3.5% in the first quarter of 2025, so it seems unlikely that prices are set to fall significantly, but we may have reached the point at which consumer demand can no longer sustain the higher retail prices.

The headline

Renewables reform?

Reform’s seismic victory at last week’s local elections means it is now in a position to influence policy in certain parts of England, and renewable energy is firmly in its sights.

After winning 677 seats, the party now has outright control of 10 councils, including Lincolnshire, Staffordshire and Kent. Tory defector Andrea Jenkyns also bagged the new mayoralty of Greater Lincolnshire for Reform.

Party leader Nigel Farage has called the government’s net-zero aspirations ‘lunacy’ and says they are pushing up household bills and destroying jobs.

Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, says the party will now use “every lever” available to block renewable projects in areas where it has won power.

Lincolnshire, where Labour Energy Minister Ed Miliband greenlighted several large-scale solar farms soon after last year’s General Election win, is said to be a particular focus.

The Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which is currently making its way through parliament, reduces the power of committees to block national infrastructure projects, so Reform’s declaration of war on renewables sets the scene for a conflict with the government.

In more inconvenient news for Mr Miliband, Tony Blair has also expressed doubts about current net-zero policies.

Writing in the foreword for a policy paper, The Climate Paradox, released last week by his think tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, the former Labour leader said:

“Present policy solutions are inadequate and, worse, are distorting the debate into a quest for a climate platform that is unrealistic and therefore unworkable.”

News in brief

Rooftop solar mandate

The government, however, is pushing on with its solar ambitions. It has been reported that rooftop panels are likely to be mandatory on all new-build properties from 2027 as part of the Future Homes Standard, due to be published soon. Although this will add thousands to construction costs, the savings on household energy bills will also be considerable, the government says.

Climate adaptation fail

But the UK’s Climate Change Committee is still less than impressed with the government. The organisation’s latest report to parliament on the country’s progress adapting to climate change, which includes agriculture, is withering. It states: “The UK’s preparations for climate change are inadequate. Delivery of effective adaptation remains limited, and despite some progress, planning for adaptation continues to be piecemeal and disjointed. The vast majority of our assessment outcomes have the same low scores as in 2023.”

Fruit and veg boost

A new briefing paper, The strong economic case for expanding UK horticulture, from the Green Alliance says there is a huge opportunity for farmers to benefit if the UK’s population can be persuaded to eat the amount of fruit and vegetables recommended as part of health guidelines. Consumption needs to rise by 86%, says the charity, which would deliver a £2.3 billion boost to the economy and a 3% hike in farm incomes, as well as creating 23,000 new jobs.

Gene editing call

Scientists say the UK’s horticultural sector could deliver even more benefits once the secondary legislation necessary to implement the Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023 for plants in England finishes its journey through parliament this week. Crops like tomatoes or strawberries that are better adapted to climate change or stay fresh for much longer could be in our fields and on supermarket shelves as soon as 2026.

New fly-tipping powers

New rules being considered by ministers will make it easier for local authorities and the police to seize and crush vehicles used for fly-tipping, Defra minister Steve Reed announced last week. “Waste criminals and fly-tippers who blight our towns and villages have gone unpunished for too long. That ends today. The Government is calling time on fly-tipping. I will not stand by while this avalanche of rubbish buries our communities,” he said.

Shoot Room Sessions

Claire Whitfield is the latest member of our Rural Consultancy team to sit down with Oxygen Conservation CEO Rich Stockdale in the Shoot Room Sessions podcast. In what Rich has called one of his most thought-provoking discussions yet, Claire delves into what really makes estate owners tick. Listen here for Claire’s insights on legacy and purpose.

Sign up for Rural Report

The Spring/Summer 2025 edition of The Rural Report, Knight Frank’s flagship publication for rural businesses, which looks in more detail at many of the issues discussed in The Rural Update, is due to be published soon. To receive your copy, which includes the latest news, research and insights from Knight Frank’s rural property experts, as well as thought-provoking contributions from some of Britain’s most iconic estates, please sign up here.

Property of the week

Northumberland wilderness

Hagdon Farm at Eglingham, near Alnwick, offers a serious taste of the wilderness for sporting enthusiasts and nature lovers. A two-bed traditional farmhouse is surrounded by 100 acres of in-bye grazing land, but the rest of the 915-acre property consists of Hagdon Moor, which has been managed for grouse and partridge. The guide price is £2.5 million. Please get in touch with Will Matthews for more information.

Discover more of the farms and estates on the market with Knight Frank

Property markets

Farmland Q1 2025 – Values resilient

The farmland market in England and Wales is holding steady in the face of mounting sector pressures. Despite wider challenges across the agricultural sector and ongoing policy uncertainty, values have remained largely stable, underlining the market’s resilience. The Knight Frank Farmland Index, which tracks the average price of bare agricultural land across England and Wales, showed a marginal drop of 1% in the first quarter of 2025 to £9,072/acre. This follows a similar small decline in the final three months of 2024, bringing the annual fall to just 1.9%.

Country houses Q1 2025 – Mixed picture

The average price of desirable homes in the countryside slipped by just 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, according to the Knight Frank Prime County House Index. Over the past 12 months, values have fallen by 1.6%. Expectations of an extra base-rate cut by the Bank of England this year could help steady markets, says Tom Bill, Knight Frank’s Head of UK Residential Research.

Development land Q4 2024 – Housing delivery down

Only 2% of the 50 housebuilders recently surveyed by Knight Frank believe that the sector will deliver the 300,000 new homes that the government is targeting for 2025. The gloomy prognosis is contained in the latest instalment of our Residential Development Land Index report, compiled by researcher Anna Ward, which reveals that the price of green and brownfield development land remained flat in the final quarter of the year, despite Labour’s ambitious housebuilding targets and planning reforms. Download the full report for more insight and data.