Active Capital: International Capital Steps Forward
As domestic investors exercise caution, international capital is pushing ahead to diversify risk and find early cycle opportunities.
3 minutes to read
International capital flows increased 18% YoY in Q3 based on provisional data, with more deals still to be recorded, and all regions marked an increase in inbound activity. APAC (+57% inbound increase YoY) and Europe (+4% inbound increase YoY), are notable beneficiaries of this momentum as investors navigate a highly nuanced landscape. There is a clear focus on liquidity and thematic-driven sectors like logistics, residential innovation-driven assets and well-located offices.
Underlying uncertainty is unlikely to resolve in the short-term, meaning that ‘waiting it out’ is a trickier strategy. International investors are leaning into opportunities following a period of repricing, with evidence of an early upswing in many global commercial real estate markets.
In this highly uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop, sensitivity and scenario analysis remains more important than ever before. It really is about noise, nuance and opportunity.
All regions have seen positive momentum for the first time, albeit at varying levels in provisional data. Asia Pacific saw high double digit increases in interest year on year last quarter. EMEA, while reporting a more sedate, but still robust 7% increase in provisional inbound volumes, continued to be the largest draw for international capital.
Looking to our forecasts for the year ahead, overall global volumes could be similar to last year, potentially with increased deployment from sovereign wealth funds (who have historically been more active at this point in the cycle) reflected by an expected uptick in outbound capital from the Middle East. We still expect the US to remain the largest global source of capital this year, albeit potentially at a slower outbound pace than in 2024, providing a further window opportunity for other investors.
In terms of sectors, those with structural tailwinds, i.e. beds and sheds are still finding favour albeit again with nuance across markets. Those sectors which benefit from innovation and the increases in defence spending are also likely to see continued / increased interest. In several locations we are also starting to see an increase in appetite in the office sector, very much for well-located offices with the right attributes and / or good bones to be refurbished or repurposed.
Private capital has been an important source of demand for some time, but as some sectors have seen repricing and as debt costs moderate, especially in those locations with an innovative mix of bank and non-bank lenders, this is also supportive of broadening liquidity.
One of the more positive signals so far this year is from Preqin, who found that the number of 2025 vintage core funds globally are already more than 80% of the total 2024 vintage, an early leading indicator of appetite for core.
Key Active Capital Trends Q3 2025
- Based on provisional RCA data, global cross-border activity across all sectors was up +18% year-on-year in Q3 2025 ($44bn P). Regional variation remains significant:
- EMEA recorded $22bn (P) of inbound activity (+4% YoY)
- APAC saw $16bn (P) of inbound activity (+53% YoY)
- Americas registered $5bn (P) of inbound activity (+2% YoY)
- The top five provisional destinations for global cross-border capital in Q3 2025 (P) are the UK, US, Australia, Germany and Malaysia.
- Evidence of inbound momentum in APAC and Mainland Europe in Q3 as investors push on with capital deployment. Australia, Germany, Malaysia, France, Spain, South Korea, Netherlands, Canada and Belgium all recorded higher provisional volumes quarter on quarter and year on year, while Singapore and Poland recorded QoQ increases. More countries are also expected to join as data flows through.
- Logistics, Office, Data Centres, Residential and Seniors Housing & Care all show quarter on quarter increases for Q3, while Office, Data Centres, residential and Seniors Housing & Care demonstrate year on year increases. This firmly sets in sight the office sector being back on the radar.
Sources of data (excl. Preqin data referenced above is MSCI RCA). Nb Data is provisional and subject to change